← ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 17.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.3% | +11.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 17.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.6% | -6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Duelist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lone Gunslinger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |